Praguetory

Alive, Well and Solvency Too

2011-11-21T00:57:00.003+01:00

Just thought I would pop a post up to let people know I am alive and well. Currently enjoying the similarities between Solvency II for the insurance industry and other regulations that I have looked at in the past. Hence, busy.

Practical Illustration Of Leftist Rhetoric Inciting Disorder

2011-08-13T12:14:00.006+02:00

On Monday evening, as it was already clear that violent criminals were gathering in the target-rich and labyrinthine streets of Birmingham city centre, Central News took the deeply unwise decision to give airtime on its evening bulletin to Mathew Raines (pictured below) a spokesman for a far left organisation which endorsed public disorder.

In this video the relevant interview starts at 1:32. In the background you will see a young black male in a red and grey tracksuit nodding along to the Leftist apologist. Next day amongst this selection of riot images in the Evening Mail, this image pops up.

It is being reported that Mathew Raines is the partner of Penny Holbrook, a Labour councillor for Stockland Green in Jack Dromey's seat of Birmingham Erdington. Mr Raines should be done for inciting violence.

Bruno Brookes Birthday

2011-05-15T08:36:00.003+02:00

Ever wondered what Bruno Brookes first birthday would have been like.
Here's a couple of excerpts.

Your Choice In Thursday's Electoral System Referendum

2011-05-03T08:50:00.004+02:00

How we decide who represents us in our democracy is a critical question and one that ought to be answered by the public, not politicians whose opinions will naturally be skewed by self-interest. For this reason, I am delighted that one outcome of the coalition is a public referendum on electoral change.

Being a local association chairman for the Conservative Party and a supporter of Yes2AV since last year, I am in the unusual position of having a foot in both camps for the referendum campaigns and an insight into both.

Talking to 'ordinary voters' and to supporters of each side, it appears that many people have felt insulted or patronized by the Yes and No campaigns. Some may even decide their vote on that basis, or due to a particular dislike for Baroness Warsi/Nick Griffin/David Cameron/Chris Huhne/Ed Miliband/Nick Clegg/Insert as appropriate. My view is that we have a chance to vote on an issue which is more important than one individual, party or campaign and that we should look at the issue itself. I think we would all do well to consider the issue on its merits.

Personally, I think that the merits of AV can be illustrated by asking ourselves pertinent questions about the system.

1. Will AV be a system that engages more people in politics?

First-past-the-post is a misnomer. There is no post. A party needs only beat the second placed opponent and can win by ensuring its core vote gets to the polling station and attracting a few tactical voters by warning of the dangers of the main opponent. Under FPTP when door-knocking, if you encounter a non-supporter the temptation is to get to the next house or persuade the voter that their planned vote would be wasted. These are not a viable tactics under AV. In seeking to pass the 50% support test under AV, a politician who wants to win has to be interested in your other preferences and is therefore likely to engage with a wider group.

At the macro level, FPTP has led to a focus on ‘key voters’ in swing seats reducing the number of people parties engage with over the years. The electoral calculus doesn’t work like that under AV forcing parties with ambitions to win seats with 50% support to spread their nets more widely.

2. Under AV will more people walk away from an election feeling like their vote/participation was worthwhile?

Unambiguously, AV gives voters more choice. Whilst some people who have always voted for one party and wish to continue to do so will not see the personal benefit, many will appreciate the opportunity to vote with their heart (first preference) and their head (next preferences) or simply to rank candidates. By elimination of the phenomenon of wasted votes, barriers to entry are reduced, meaning that our politics is likely to become more dynamic with new ideas coming to the fore and a greater range of options at the ballot box.

What’s more, AV provides more information to politicians. MPs who were elected after several elimination rounds will know where their residual support came from and second placed candidates will know where they failed to garner the support. To use an example, we all know how Ed Miliband passed David Miliband on the later rounds of the Labour leadership vote which provided both with a great deal of useful democratic information.

3. Will AV be a system that strengthens Parliament?

Whilst I don’t think that politicians elected on FPTP are illegitimate, there is a perception problem when people can keep a straight face whilst questioning the mandate of a coalition government which jointly commanded 60% or so of the votes in the 2011 General Election. It is the case that under AV all MPs will need support of at least 50% of those expressing a preference. That has to improve the legitimacy of MPs to be our elected representatives.

As mentioned above those elected will know exactly where their support came from as a result of the information provided in the count. If somebody ran on a single issue platform (say a planning issue), the true importance of this issue to voters is likely to be concealed under FPTP because of the risk of wasting your vote. This is less so, under AV where voters can use their first preference to make a ‘protest’ on an issue of importance to them safe in the knowledge that they can still influence the overall result.

Downsides

The fact it isn’t used in many countries is irrelevant. It may lead to a tendency to moderation (not extremism as Baroness Warsi argued) leading to insipid all-things-to-all-men characters being elected, but I suspect that exciting, radical candidates can still break through.

Yes, AV costs a little more (it’s marginal), is more complex (it’s marginal) and incorporates delay (it’s marginal), but these are prices worth paying for a better system.

Conclusion

In summary, AV is a system which strengthens Parliament, supports a dynamic free market in ideas, is likely to engage more people in the political process and make more people feel like their vote was worthwhile. In my opinion, these are good reasons for any Conservative to support it, but most of all anyone who is a fan of true democracy. What do you think?

True Up Uk plc's Accounts

2011-02-14T02:33:00.002+01:00

Sometimes I prepare blogs which I don't publish. Here's one I found from last March. Quite interesting with hindsight.

A key lesson we can learn from our local government electoral successes is that when we take over from Labour administrations, we need to communicate to the electorate the true nature of the Labour legacy. We need to make the case for truing up UK plc’s accounts as soon as we get a chance to open the books.

Anyone who consumes political news can see that Labour is eager to frame the economic debate - which is the key battleground at the coming election - in terms of Tory spending plans. This is a problem for us. The Labour government has shown that they will unleash the machinery of a politicised senior Civil Service to attack specific ideas, but being overly vague on our deficit reduction plans sends a poor message to voters.

In respect of the inevitable future spending reductions, the media have taken up this what/when/how line of questioning on Labour’s behalf, and time after time we see Tory spokespeople on our screens walking a delicate tightrope between realism about and over-enthusiasm for cuts. It rarely looks pretty and in the context of a deficit of trillions, has, at times, descended into heated arguments over line items which are, in relative terms, minutiae.

The simple truth is that without sight of the books, we won’t know the true extent of the deficit problem or be able to diagnose the consequent action required. To fight on this territory before the election is like going into battle blind-folded, and it isn’t good strategy.

Therefore we should seek to reframe this debate by describing our approach to deficit reduction. Whilst certain cuts can and should be made from day one of a Conservative government, the larger part of the deficit reduction programme needs more groundwork.
In my view, the first step in this programme is to true up the national accounts. It may seem like a long time ago, but New Labour’s golden rule was that debt should not exceed 40% of GDP. First mentioned by Brown in the 1990s for over a decade, many major government projects and policies have been structured in ways with adherence to this rule as a prime objective. Classifying spending as investment, PFI projects where unavoidable future costs are not recorded as government liabilities and the non-recognition of future pension liabilities are the best known tools in the government’s box of accounting tricks, but they may be just the tip of a very nasty iceberg. Like Enron, the UK government has used the letter rather than the spirit of the law to present their numbers in a favourable way.

To reveal a fairer picture of our finances, we should engage an independent firm to prepare a May 7 2010 UK plc balance sheet under private sector standards valuing our assets at their market value and recording our liabilities in full. A summary of the adjustments made to take the leap from our predecessors’ records to get to this truer picture should not be difficult to set out.

Armed with this realistic information, we can have a proper public debate about future fiscal decisions. It may well be the case that after ring-fenced budgets and unavoidable commitments, the percentage cuts required in other areas to get our finances back on track are even greater than previously estimated or advertised. Or we may need to renegotiate onerous contracts entered into by the previous government. But that’s a question for the future.

These interminable arguments about what, when and where to cut which do so much to switch off the electorate can be extinguished, if instead, we answer such questions by describing our approach. It can also be used to put the onus on Labour on whether or not they support our sensible approach. If we can put this inane deficit debate to bed, perhaps we can focus our attention on the important business of recreating the excellent conditions for economic growth in the private sector which we provided last time we were in government.

Another reason for taking the approach I describe is to manage public expectations. If we don’t go through this exercise, I fear that financial grenades will be exploding for years to come. I’d hate to see us caught in the same cycle of obfuscation and form over substance that we have come to expect under New Labour. We wouldn’t be forgiven by the electorate for that.

Robert Higginson For Soho

2011-02-10T12:07:00.003+01:00

For the second year in succession our local candidate in Birmingham Soho ward will be local campaigner, Robert Higginson.

With his extensive knowledge of the people and the area, Robert has come to the conclusion that Soho ward has been let down over the years and effective advocacy is what is missing from their political representatives.

A good example of this came up at a recent Winson Green Neighbourhood meeting, there were several complaints about the quality of council houses. This struck myself and Robert as strange as we knew that the decent homes programme across the city is almost complete. Well we did some digging and found that Soho's decent homes completion was 89% at the end of 2009/2010 compared to an average of 96% in the other wards in Ladywood constituency. The city-wide figure is 98% compared to 35% when Labour were kicked out in 2004.

Another can of worms opens up when you look at section 106 money. There are a variety of reasons (or a catalogue of disasters) which explain why various pots have not been used effectively in Soho, but the root cause is the rank incompetence of the three Labour councillors.

Vote Robert Higginson the local Conservative candidate in 2011 for an effective voice for Soho.

Election Flashback

2011-02-08T00:52:00.003+01:00

Feeling nostalgic for the 2010 election? This picture relates to a general election story. Does anybody know which one and where it took place?

Political Reform Debate

2011-01-25T14:23:00.003+01:00

Some of you may know that one of the listed panellists is in fact me! Do sign up if you can attend.

Olton By-election - Lib Dem Last Minute Literature

2011-01-20T23:36:00.006+01:00

Since the General Election the Solihull Council has been run by a Lib Dem/Labour coalition despite the Tories being the largest party. I believe it is the only Lib Dem led authority in the West Midlands. However, control is on a knife-edge. At the start of the day, the coalition had a working majority of just one. This is what makes today's by-election in Olton - a contest over a Lib Dem held seat in which the Lib Dem and Conservatives are regarded as the main contenders - a fairly important political event in local government terms and in West Midlands politics.

Here is an interesting type of campaign leaflet. Printed in Conservative blue and distributed on the day of the election, from the cover page below, it looks like a note of apology from the Conservative team.

It was no such thing and the Conservative team who ran a positive campaign have not apologised and have absolutely nothing to apologise for. Inside is a note from one of the incumbent Lib Dem councillors (note that neither the candidate herself or his ward colleague felt able to sign it) apologising on behalf of the Conservatives, which of course he has no right to do. Cllr Windmill even brings a dead body into the Lib Dem message.

This evening the Conservative campaign office was inundated with calls of complaint from voters (some of whom were previously Lib Dems disgusted by this particular leaflet). One mentioned that he's been through all the literature to see what the author of the literature was getting at, but couldn't find anything. On the other hand, we'll probably never know how many voters were fooled by these nasty tactics. I don't think we've heard the end of this matter. The first question is of course who authorised this disgusting and dishonest piece of literature.

Update 21 January 2011 0034hrs

LD 1188, Con 1179, Lab 280, Ind 228, Green 115.

Grrrrrr!

Last Thursday's Student Protests

2010-12-12T12:32:00.004+01:00

I vowed not to, but ended up watching these activities on Sky and BBC. We are asked to believe that these are peaceful protests, but the people leading these protests have encouraged violence. The NUS labelled the first demo 'Demolition', a very popular placard at all protests is 'bring down the government' and the chanting is all about fighting back.

Predictably, violence ensued. The following is what happened.

1. Fairly early on, protestors diverted from the agreed route and head towards the Houses of Parliament.
2. Barriers surrounding Parliament Square were torn down by protestors and they headed into Parliament Square. Still over 3 hours from the vote, the prospect of further police lines being breached and protestors invading Parliament looked possible.
3. Protestors tested the police lines separating Parliament Square and the Houses of Parliament. Considerable violence was being used by this time.
4. The line appeared to be holding firm and a considerable number of the troublemakers headed towards the opposite corner of Parliament Square around Westminster Abbey. A very thin police line formed there, which became a flashpoint, as the number of troublemakers and police bolstered on either side. Sticks, paint bombs and railings were used as weapons against the police here.
5. It's from this point that the containment had effectively started.

A few points about this. One - anyone caught between the Houses Of Parliament and Westminster Abbey wasn't where they were supposed to be. Two - the number of thugs who were on Oxford Street causing mayhem and mobbing the Royal car would have been far higher if the police had failed to contain these people.

As far as I can see, once the protestors had breached Parliament Square, the police tactics were exactly right. I don't understand why some arguing that kettling failed - it prevented far greater disorder. My main criticism is that the police allowed protestors into the target rich environment around Parliament Square. In other words, they should have been more firm earlier on.

The protestors and media are talking about further activities, but as the legislation is now passed, I doubt that future events will be on the same scale and certainly there will be less 'peaceful protestors' who provide useful camouflage for anarchists and criminals cover to operate.

Nonetheless, I am disturbed about the diversion of police resources away from the neighbourhoods they are supposed to serve to police these demos.

Here's the pictures of 14 people who Scotland Yard would like to speak to. Recognise anyone?

The Impossibility Of 'Progressive' Spending Cuts

2010-10-21T16:04:00.004+02:00

Only the very most stupid continue to argue that large spending cuts to address the dreadful black hole that the Coalition government inherited in May are unnecessary. However, the main line of argument against the spending cuts is itself a nonsense. Left-wing critics argue that low income groups will be most affected. But is there a permutation of government spending cuts which would not be regressive?

Of course, many elements of government expenditure are targeted at the poorest, but for illustrative purposes let's assume that the benefit of government spending is evenly distributed.

Let's imagine that in this theoretical nation, the highest earning half of the population segment have average take home pay of £30,000 and the lowest half £10,000. Say there is £10,000 of government spending per head and an across the board of 10% reduction is announced. The £1,000 cut in government expenditure represents 3.3% for the richest and 10% for the poorest. As it is obviously the case that poorer people have more spent on them by the government, a large scale expenditure reduction is always going to have a bigger percentage effect on the poorest than the richest.

Speaking on TV, Carl Emmerson, the acting director of the IFS suggests on the one hand that the cuts may not be sufficient but complains that the cuts are regressive. You can't have it both ways. To support spending cuts but argue against regressive cuts is demanding the impossible.

What Is The Housing Crisis?

2010-10-10T13:22:00.006+02:00

When house prices spiral out of the reach of the average family, they call it a housing crisis, now there are signs of price slippage, the message is similar. Tails, they win, heads, we lose. Some commentators appear to place the blame firmly with the Great British Public castigating our apparent obsession with owning a home for our ills, (See Note below) but I don't agree.

The housing crisis isn't about the level of house prices, significant as that is for aspiring and actual home-owners, but rather the housing shortage. The most relevant symptom of the UK housing crisis is the 5 million people on the council house waiting list. This is a record and a friend of mine who is in the sector tells me that many of these people will never get to the top of this particular 'waiting list'. Please don't go away with the idea that I am advocating a massive council house-building programme. Surveys show that most people would like to live in their own homes so what is the point of spending money we don't have, on things people don't want.

Instead, reflect on the incentives created by our current system of property taxes. In my apartment block of 20 flats, I reckon we spend £25,000 a year on council tax. If a similar-sized plot next door was derelict scrub, it would not attract any taxes. Seems strange that land put to productive use is highly taxed, but that in relative terms, owners of semi-abandoned land are rewarded. But this is just one feature of a British property tax system which penalises built property (council tax, rates, VAT etc) and property transactions (capital gains, stamp duty and inheritance tax).

Let us the consider the relative outcomes that arise from different ways of organising taxes on properties.

Taxes On Built Property - Taxes On Land

Housing Shortages - No Housing Shortages

Unaffordable Housing - Affordable Housing

Narrow Property Ownership - Wide Property Ownership

Poverty Trap - Incentives To Progress

Sclerotic Property Market - Dynamic Property Market

What's not to like?

Note re British obsession with owning a house - 1. I don't detect a relative lack of appetite in other countries to own a home 2. For a family the alternative to owning a home is living on a council state or depending on a private landlord. Neither is an appetising prospect.

Katherine Birbalsingh

2010-10-08T14:09:00.006+02:00

In my sidebar links under education, I link to "To Miss With Love" a teacher who has been blogging for years about how the poorest kids are badly let down by the educational system and culture. I found and so have others, that there comes a point when you run a successful blog when you have said all you have to say to your online audience and want to find a way to make a greater impact in the real world. For the author of "To Miss With Love", Katherine Birbalsingh that epiphany came recently.

So the other day she stopped blogging and appeared on the main stage at Conservative Party Conference. She brought the house down with an insightful testimony into how education was failing and what needed to be changed. Click to 1.17 for her impassioned speech. Well, naturally enough, she has now been asked to stay away from her work as deputy head at St Michael and All Angels Academy C of E in Southwark, London.

Cranmer's got the story by the scruff of the neck as have some of the nationals. Some people suggest that she should work in the private sector or help Michael Gove with helping to reform education. I would humbly submit that it isn't in those areas where there is a lack of talent or an excess of wrong-headedness. No. She should remain as teacher in the state sector.

She hasn't been punished by her school for speaking against the establishment but rather, for doing so effectively. She should keep her job and the people who punished her for exercising freedom of speech need to go. This is the sort of battle we need to win.

Update

The battle has been won. Katharine has been reinstated. However, in the fight against the left-wing establishment, Katharine may need our support again, so please join this facebook group.

2010-10-04T11:49:00.003+02:00

During conference, I am blogging for the Birmingham Post. Check out my daily blogs here

Here's a picture of me with a rather more famous Tory. Phillip Blond, an academic pioneer promoting localism and the Big Society is the Red Tory.

Party Conference Planning

2010-09-25T01:45:00.005+02:00

I am planning on doing a bit of writing in and around conference. The following is a brief overview of conference plans.

Saturday

3pm - Chairmans Meeting

5pm - Blogger Meetup

7pm - Erdington Fund-raiser at Mechu

9pm - Tory Bear & YBF Karaoke?

Sunday

8am - Rethinking Older Age (CSJ)

9.30 - National Convention

Midday - Fighting off invading hordes

12.30 - Tax Reform - A Blueprint for Revolution (ASI)

2.30 - Blitz leafleting with CF

5.30 - West Midlands Reception

7 - Centre Of Cities (invite pending lol)

8.30 - Some Respublica event

10.00 - Hyatt drinks?

Monday

8am - What can the govt do to support business growth? (RBS)

9 - 6 Flexible - somewhere between the Freedom Zone and the ICC.

6.30 - Conference church service at the Town Hall

7.30 - Birmingham Uni CF event

9.30 - Twitter

Tuesday

9 - 6 Flexible - somewhere between the Freedom Zone and the ICC.

6.30 - Non-political commitment

8.30 - Pop quiz hosted by Feargal Sharkey and free-flowing booze. I predict our team will win.

10.30 - Iain Dale event

Wednesday

9 - Fringe stuff

2 - Leader's speech but no way am I queueing for hours so I'll catch on TV somewhere.

JOHN CLANCY - LABOUR'S MAN IN QUINTON FAVOURS MUGABE ECONOMICS

2010-09-22T12:17:00.008+02:00

Quinton is a quiet suburb on the western edge of Birmingham with a lot of owner occupiers. So can you imagine my surprise when word reached me that in John Clancy, Labour are putting up a candidate whose policies borrow from Mugabe.

Respect for other people’s property is the basis of a decent society. But on this score, the Labour candidate for Birmingham Quinton has more in common with the Zimbabwe dictator Robert Mugabe than the people of Quinton.

“Stealing land off Brits…”

On his website he says he favours land nationalization. In a piece published on a blog titled ‘Why Calthorpe needs to go’ he gave more detail.

“So, we TAKE land from the very rich … and give back to the Crown, because the Crown now has a better use for it.”

And his plans for these ill-gotten gains.

“…To sell it off to foreigners!”

“We could sell the land over time to hungry buyers around the world, to sovereign wealth funds, to the Chinese and Russians.”

Like this?

“assets like Ascot Race Course, which no doubt the uber-wealthy Middle Eastern Horse Racing fanatics would be slavering over the possibility of buying.”

The Labour candidate for Quinton is a dangerous fanatic. Just more evidence of Labour's lurch to the left.

A Top Conservative Blog

2010-09-08T19:19:00.004+02:00

I came in number 92 in Total Politics Top 100 Conservative blogs. As I average 2 blogs per month over the last year, I have got to pleased with that. I'd like to thank both of my readers and the person who voted for me.

Update

I note that another Conservative blog from a member of Birmingham Ladywood association was a high new entry. Congratulations guythemac on firing in at number 45.

Ferry Cross The Mersey

2010-08-25T00:00:00.003+02:00

Defecting between the major parties is something I find a little incomprehensible in general. The funny thing is that most of the individual decisions are even less easy to understand. As we might expect, the BBC has taken to reporting council level defections which is how I found out about this oddity.

Here's what the BBC reports.

Mr Jobling, who was first elected in 2003 and is a member of Merseyside Police Authority, said the proposed cuts to the police force had really bothered him.

So lemme get this straight. A Lib Dem defects to Labour because of proposed cuts to the police force. This is confounding on so many levels? To name 3

1. Why was he a Lib Dem in the first place if policing is his number one issue?
2. Where did he get the idea that Labour is the law n order party?
3. Why did he have to wait so long to jump ship? It's been clear for months that due to the previous Labour overspending, budgets would need to contract in all departments but health and international development.

In a word, odd.

New Conservative Future Branch For Birmingham

2010-07-26T15:19:00.004+02:00

Birmingham is well known in Conservative circles for the activities of the branch based out of Birmingham University which has over a 100 members. However, there has been a gap in the market for an organisation serving all young Conservatives in the city and especially those who don't go to Birmingham University. For example, my home association has several members from Aston University. Well this weakness is being rectified with the creation of a new Conservative Future for Birmingham. Conservative members from the city (including the university) can claim automatic membership or you can join up by coming along to one of the regular events the organisation has planned.

Three of the four founding members were council candidates in May. Best of luck to Amil, Gareth, Gary and Louise with making a success of this welcome initiative. For more, go to their website or mail the Committee at birminghamcf@gmail.com.

Tax Simplification Idea

2010-07-20T10:54:00.003+02:00

Now that the Office for Tax Simplification has been set up, I suppose they will be looking for ideas. Mine would be to abolish all property taxes (council tax, stamp duty, capital gains tax, inheritance tax, business rates and telly tax) and replace with land value taxation. Further reading on the case for land value tax, here.

Golden Boy

2010-07-20T02:44:00.013+02:00

I didn't expect to be saying this, but my firstborn has bowled me over. Adam is, without doubt, the cutest baby. He's only 2 months, but has been smiling since he was 3 weeks old. Of course, he will smile back at you now, but he also smiles with his eyes - and melts your heart in the process.

He's also been able to hold his head up since a very young age and flatters you with his full attention by lifting his head and staring at you when he's lying down on his front.

He's a real water baby who loves being washed. Even at his baptism he didn't cry. This picture of Adam in the bath turned out beautifully.

I can happily spend hours watching Adam sleep. In between him mouthing something or other and waving his arms about, he looks like this.

Dads can sometimes feel useless, but I found my niche as a winding specialist. I would tap or rub his back to try to get trapped air to rise. Thing is Adam started to massage me back. That's what he is doing in this picture.

How cute is that? To cap off, he was looking pretty alert and aware of the camera in this photo which I have made my facebook profile for now.

My personal view is that the time of maximum cuteness has passed - we shall see.

Mutley The Dog RIP

2010-05-24T13:23:00.004+02:00

It is with sadness that I report to those who haven't heard that Robert Chambers who ran the mutleythedog website passed away suddenly in the early hours of Friday 21 May. A webpage has been set up where his many online and offline friends have left suitable tributes to the man. Robert certainly knew satire and had a genius for making serious points via wacky fantasies.

I was fortunate enough to meet him offline as well as online. One evening in early March 2007 he came to visit Prague on some EU quango conference. My recollection of our conversation remains vivid. Not only did he provide political and blogging inspiration, but his demeanour taught me a few things about how to engage with other people.

We both had lots of fun on our blogs embellishing our adventures. I have tagged blogposts that involved Mutley which included a few days in July 2007 when he took on a pro-European alter-ego in my absence to wind up some of my regular site visitors. My favourites were Mutley the Dog's Night Out in Prague and a provocative post on a United Europe (see the comments!).

Now that I am a Conservative constituency chairman, I look back on those more carefree blogging days with fondness and won't forget Robert's support. A true libertarian, he didn't live his life like a dress rehearsal, yet exuded a natural kindness. God bless and RIP.

Disenfranchised Voters

2010-05-09T01:04:00.008+02:00

St Paul's in the Jewellery Quarter is one of the most picturesque polling stations in Birmingham. Serving the north of the Ladywood ward, it is also a polling station where the Conservatives do relatively well. However, the number of voters it serves is crazy. Latest information suggests it has 3,008 voters. For comparison the polling station with the second highest number of voters in the ward has an electorate of 2,117.

This large electorate has been a source of frustration for some time. It means some voters have quite a trek to place their cross and I believe that other Conservative politicians in the city have made representations to have further polling stations made available in Ladywood ward. On Thursday, we experienced another unfortunate consequence of the current arrangements. Having popped in in the morning I arrived at the polling station at about 6pm and already the queues were growing. At this stage, it was just inside the church, but within a short time, it extended into the street as my photo shows. On the one hand, it is a sign of higher turnout, but when I saw people in the slow-moving queue giving up on the democratic process I had to go into the station to let the two staff manning the station know that the queue now extended well outside the church and that people were walking away. I told them that anything they could do to speed up would be appreciated.

Obviously, I left to prepare for the count, but I did send texts to friends I know in the Jewellery Quarter asking whether they had voted and to get a move on. Next sign of a problem was when a friend sent me a text at 10.10 saying 'still voting now'. It is reported that 100 people were turned away from the polling station at around 10 O'Clock some of whom had turned up as early as nine. And you can add on the people who left the queue or decided not to vote based on the queue to the numbers who were disenfranchised.

If any of my readers can shed more light on the matter, I suggest checking out this statement from Birmingham Council. The action that needs to be taken now is obvious. Have another polling station in the Jewellery Quarter to relieve the potential bottlenecks and put more voters within easy access of polling stations. I would suggest the Museum of the Jewellery Quarter.

The Best 5 Things About The Election

2010-05-08T01:25:00.004+02:00

Here are the 5 things that pleased me the most (bearing in mind that Brown's hold on Downing Street whilst precarious is not yet gone).

1. Expenses Villains Paying The Price

Jacqui Smith getting the boot from Redditch was my favourite moment. I take the view that she had a cheek even standing, so seeing her go down on a swing over 9% was gratifying. Honourable mentions to Shaheed Malik (Dewsbury) and Ann Keen (Dewsbury) who were also deposed.

2. Increasing Vote Share In Ladywood

The challenges we faced were huge. For a start, we risked being squeezed as the third runner in a two-horse race and only picked our Parliamentary candidate in February. Put this into the context of national voting patterns showing that Labour shored up their vote in the inner cities (flip-side of winning the immigration debate?) our candidate's performance was excellent.

3. Warwickshire North

Dan Byles took Warwickshire North with a majority of 54! I got to know Dan when I was working in his constituency. I know that the incumbent put up a big fight to keep Dan out, but Dan fought a smashing campaign and will be a great advocate for his area.

4. Weoley Castle

On the Tuesday of the election I spent a full day in Weoley Castle ward which was won by just 150 votes. Unfortunately, we lost three Conservative councillors in Birmingham in similar wards, so the extra effort and campaigning that Peter, Adrian and Eddie have done in Weoley was crucial.

5. Other Local Wins

Paul Uppal (Wolverhampton South-West), Chris Kelly (Dudley South), and Margot James (Stourbridge) were all confident of winning and did so. I expect them to be MPs for a long time and to do great things to promote the Conservative cause in the West Midlands.

The Change Clegg Can't Offer

2010-04-21T09:25:00.003+02:00

David Cameron can commit not to coalesce with Labour to prop up Gordon Brown. If he's the change from the past he says he is, Clegg should be able to match this commitment. He can't. Being as it seems to be the time when the electorate are listening, one of the leadership debates seems a good time to lay down the challenge to Clegg on this important point.

Debt Clock

2010-04-14T08:54:00.002+02:00

In the light of the above a caption competition seems apt. Complete the political T-shirt slogan.

By the time you've read this T-shirt...

Own Goal Campaigning Posters

2010-04-12T22:17:00.006+02:00

Can it really be so difficult for political parties and organisations to put together campaign posters that don't harm their own case?

Exhibit One From Labour

Sounds good?

Exhibit Two From Unite

My instinctive reaction was that looks sharp, good. It's an interesting campaigning angle to attack your opponent for making cuts when a clear majority of the public support that position. Makes you think that the Tories are going to be the best party to do the work you think is required.

In the interests of balance, I don't think that the Tory posters that only run on Brown's image and 'achievements' are very special.

Time For Change

2010-04-04T23:14:00.004+02:00

Back in 2007 the Conservative Party revealed that they would be using the "Time For Change" slogan. Here in Birmingham Ladywood we've adopted it in our literature. As the graphic shows, so have the local Lib Dems.

You'd have thought this attractive pair would be able to rely on their natural charm. ;-)

Message From Peter Mandelson

2010-04-04T20:37:00.003+02:00

Some jester put me on the Labour Party mailing list. Here's Peter Mandelson's latest message to Labour loyalists. I can't tell whether he's trying to convince readers or himself...

Let me start by thanking you for the superhuman efforts you have been putting in over the last few months.

Your individual efforts have proved a formidable counter to the millions being ploughed into marginal constituencies by Lord Ashcroft’s Tories, and the million-pound airbrushed poster campaigns being run by our opponents.

The Tories may have a significant financial advantage but as your efforts have shown this need not be a barrier to getting our message across. This is a task for every member – this needs to be a word of mouth election.

As the ‘Shallow’ Chancellor, George Osborne, was bragging in his Guardian interview on Saturday, the Tories think they have it in the bag and the election is won before a single vote is cast.

So, what happened last week? Yes, the Tories got favourable coverage and that is a reminder to everyone that we remain the underdogs in this election. But they did so by putting politics before economics, putting their short-term political interests before the longer-term economic interests of the country. They would rather score points than stick to policies that would secure Britain’s economic recovery. When things get choppy for Mr. Cameron his first thought is to abandon fiscal discipline and his commitment to tackling the deficit, and instead reach out for crowd pleasing about-turns.

What is striking about him is that his response to any pressure is to take the soft option and the easy road. This is a far cry from the bold heir-to-Blair he first advertised. But easy politics does not make for sound economics. And it isn’t leadership.

Unfunded promises made today can lead to economic calamity tomorrow. The Tories have underlined the central plank in Labour’s campaign – that, through our toughness, we are best placed to secure recovery.

So my point f or you is this: the headlines achieved by the Tories are also an opportunity for us to show that we have guts, that when the going gets tough we make tough and serious choices that put the country first. A rise in NICs may not be popular but it is necessary, and therefore it is the right thing for the country – unless a hefty VAT rise is to be put in its place or even bigger swingeing cuts of public services.

Just remember that, two weeks ago, in a Saturday morning speech, Cameron was hailing himself as the new Thatcher, the man to stand up to vested interests and take the difficult decisions however unpopular. Well, if a week is a long time in politics a fortnight is an eternity in Cameronland.

Our mission is to secure our economic recovery. Our task is to hold our nerve and stick to our guns. Our most important mission is to secure the recovery. Nothing must get in the way. This is the critical issue of this election – who has the better policies and judgement to lock in recovery.

Gordon and Alistair must continue to make the right calls as they did when we were hit by the global financial crisis. They were the first movers on a plan that averted a Great Depression in the global economy, and their decisions set us on the road to recovery.

Through the resilience and sacrifice of the British people, the impact of the recession was blunted and shortened. As a consequence, the rate of unemployment, business failures, and home repossessions has been significantly lower than under the Tory recession of the 1990s (and with lower mortgage rates too).

Cameron-Osborne got all these big economic judgements wrong. They would have let Northern Rock go to the wall. They opposed the fiscal stimulus and the real help we gave businesses and families so we could get through this recession together.

Now they are getting it wrong on the recovery. Cut through George Osborne’s hubris and you will see him confi rming that he plans to take £6-7 billion out of the economy this year in his ‘emergency’ budget, even though private demand remains weak.

To take this amount of spending power out of the economy straightaway – when the economy needs support and the road ahead will be bumpy - would pull the rug from under the recovery. This ‘emergency’ budget would put the economy straight back into the crisis room.

Now is not the time to take this sharp right turn off the road to recovery. The consequence if we do would be felt in people’s jobs and people’s living standards and young people’s training and job opportunities. This is the threat Cameron and Osborne pose.

Protecting frontline services

Once we are through this year we have to tackle the deficit in a way that is credible, responsible and fair and that protects the frontline services people rely on – schools, hospitals, childcare and police numbers.

The rise in National Ins urance – which we propose, not this year, but in 2011 once recovery is secured – is a necessary measure to enable us to restore the public finances whilst maintaining the public services.

Every businessman I have spoken to this year has told me that sorting out the national finances – doing so over time and not in one go – is the priority. That is what the National Insurance increase is about. I know some in business object, just as universities objected to the modest belt-tightening I have asked for from that sector.

But Government is about hard choices and we cannot shy away from them if we want to tackle the deficit and protect schools, hospitals, childcare and the police.

Frontline schools, police numbers and Sure Start will not be protected by the Tories. That much we know. If you are a parent with children in school and whose children go to Children’s Centres you should know before you cast your vote that these budgets will be cut under the Tor ies, not protected.

The Tories can say what they like. But a promise to cut the deficit further than Labour, cut taxes and sustain public spending doesn’t add up – it is a three card Tory con trick.

For the Tories, change is now only a slogan

So securing recovery and protecting frontline services will be on the ballot paper come election day.

And they are both under threat from a Tory party that is showing itself to be a party little changed from the past.

Look at their platform: immediate cuts that would put jobs and services at risk; unfunded tax cuts; an inheritance tax giveaway for the 3,000 richest estates in the country, whilst middle income mums have their child tax credits and Child Trust funds taken away; a married couples allowance restored that even Ken Clarke doesn’t agree with.

How is this different from the agenda of Michael Howard or William Hague when they were Tory leaders?

Real change promised by David Cameron at the start of his leadership has been junked. Change is now no more than a PR slogan.

This will be a big choice election

It is a choice between securing the recovery with Labour or immediate Tory cuts that could tip us back into recession.

Between protecting frontline services with Labour or an unchanged Tory Party salivating at the prospect of taking an axe to them.

Between the granite-like resilience and big brain of Gordon Brown or the plastic PR and wobbliness of David Cameron.

In all this we should remember the power of a clear, consistent, disciplined message from being on your side, standing up for hardworking families and the public’s deep fear of cuts in vital public services. Of course they hate the idea of waste and inefficiency. And we should not shy away from explaining what we are doing to make savings.

But when it comes down to it, people do not trust the Tories to be on their side. They believe the Tories want to cut public services whether it is necessary or not. Some in the media may wish to obscure this fact but the public’s attitude is deeply felt.

Thanks again for all your hard work. We have a tough campaign ahead of us. But this is a campaign that matters for the millions of people we came into politics to serve. We really are in the fight of our lives.

Thank you

Peter

Quote Of The Day

2010-03-19T13:26:00.001+01:00

I didn't send in a letter of resignation because I would have needed a publisher

Ex-Labour MP resigns from his party. Source.

Truing Up UK plc’s Accounts Is The First Step In Tackling The Deficit

2010-03-13T10:09:00.003+01:00

I believe that a key lesson we can learn from our local government electoral successes is that when we take over from Labour administrations, we need to communicate to the electorate the true nature of the Labour legacy. I'd like to put the case for truing up UK plc’s accounts as soon as we get a chance to open the books.

Anyone who consumes political news can see that Labour is eager to frame the economic debate - which is the key battleground at the coming election - in terms of Tory spending plans. This is a problem for us. The Labour government has shown that they will unleash the machinery of a politicised senior Civil Service to attack specific ideas, but being overly vague on our deficit reduction plans sends a poor message to voters.

In respect of the inevitable future spending reductions, the media have taken up this what/when/how line of questioning on Labour’s behalf, and time after time we see Tory spokespeople on our screens walking a delicate tightrope between realism about and over-enthusiasm for cuts. It rarely looks pretty and in the context of a deficit of trillions, has, at times, descended into heated arguments over line items which are, in relative terms, minutiae.

The simple truth is that without sight of the books, we won’t know the true extent of the deficit problem or be able to diagnose the consequent action required. To fight on this territory before the election is like going into battle blind-folded, and it isn’t good strategy.

Therefore we should seek to reframe this debate by describing our approach to deficit reduction. Whilst certain cuts can and should be made from day one of a Conservative government, the larger part of the deficit reduction programme needs more groundwork.

In my view, the first step in this programme is to true up the national accounts. It may seem like a long time ago, but New Labour’s golden rule was that debt should not exceed 40% of GDP. First mentioned by Brown in the 1990s for over a decade, many major government projects and policies have been structured in ways with adherence to this rule as a prime objective. Classifying spending as investment, PFI projects where unavoidable future costs are not recorded as government liabilities and the non-recognition of future pension liabilities are the best known tools in the government’s box of accounting tricks, but they may be just the tip of a very nasty iceberg. Like Enron, the UK government has used the letter rather than the spirit of the law to present their numbers in a favourable way.

To reveal a fairer picture of our finances, we should engage an independent firm to prepare a May 7 2010 UK plc balance sheet under private sector standards valuing our assets at their market value and recording our liabilities in full. A summary of the adjustments made to take the leap from our predecessors’ records to get to this truer picture should not be difficult to set out.
Armed with this realistic information, we can have a proper public debate about future fiscal decisions. It may well be the case that after ring-fenced budgets and unavoidable commitments, the percentage cuts required in other areas to get our finances back on track are even greater than previously estimated or advertised. Or we may need to renegotiate onerous contracts entered into by the previous government. But that’s a question for the future.

These interminable arguments about what, when and where to cut which do so much to switch off the electorate can be extinguished, if instead, we answer such questions by describing our approach. It can also be used to put the onus on Labour on whether or not they support our sensible approach. If we can put this inane deficit debate to bed, perhaps we can focus our attention on the important business of recreating the excellent conditions for economic growth in the private sector which we provided last time we were in government.

Another reason for taking the approach I describe is to manage public expectations. If we don’t go through this exercise, I fear that financial grenades will be exploding for years to come. I’d hate to see us caught in the same cycle of obfuscation and form over substance that we have come to expect under New Labour. We wouldn’t be forgiven by the electorate for that.

Has Erdington Labour Party Been Infiltrated?

2010-02-27T00:55:00.015+01:00

In Jack Dromey (aka Mr Harriet Harman) the Birmingham Erdington branch of the Labour Party has just chosen the perfect Parliamentary candidate for the Tories.

What do his comrades within the Labour Party say about the union baron and spouse of the Deputy Prime Minister?

One opponent in the selection contest for Erdington. Ansar Ali Khan said.

I am not a relative of Tony Blair, Gordon Brown or Harriet Harman and I am not three years from retirement age.

Source.

And from another opponent, Steve Bedser

The view I have of an MP doing a good job is that they are grounded in the constituency they represent.

Source.

And local Labour ward councillor Mike Sharp

I am against anyone coming in from London or elsewhere, no matter how important they are. It should be a local person, someone from the constituency.

Source.

Back in his hometown of London, what do they say about him? Labour Party insiders call him.

lazy and stupid.

Source.

I am sure he looks forward to further ringing endorsements. ;-)

Putting aside the union backing, his family connections, and his lack of proximity to Birmingham, my question is different. Why would voters trust a man who 'knew nothing' about 14 MILLION POUNDS loans for lordships when it was under his nose? To support an energetic, young, candidate who lives in the middle of the constituency and has a track record of representing the electorate of Erdington, join the campaign for Bobby Alden.

Ladywood Team Meet DC

2010-02-12T01:05:00.004+01:00

From left to right we have your host, the party leader, Nusrat Ghani (Ladywood PPC), Mohammed Shahban (Nechells Ward PPC) and Sharon Pennant (Ladywood Ward PPC). As I'm the only one not up for election this year, that makes me the odd one out.

Cast Change Over At Lolitics

2010-02-04T14:57:00.004+01:00

With just minutes left before midnight for his party, the Honourable member for Birmingham Erdington has decided to retire. His excuse for this decision is to campaign to be the elected mayor for Birmingham - a job which doesn't yet exist. Others may recall that neither Boris Johnson or Frank Dobson stood down as MPs when they were attempting to become Mayors of London. Indeed, it seems like being an MP would be a better platform. Of greater importance is the fact that Sion-droyd was a key character at lolitics. I doubt he will ever be reincarnated as mayor-man.

Chairman Of Ladywood Conservatives

2010-01-14T12:03:00.003+01:00

Yesterday I was elected as chairman of Birmingham Ladywood Conservatives. The constituency of Ladywood is the closest thing to Birmingham Central. 2010 should be an exciting time to be involved. In addition to national and local elections, this autumn sees the return of the Conservative Party conference to Ladywood constituency. Mail the Committee at ladywoodconservatives@googlemail.com if you would like to get involved...

2010 & All That

2010-01-01T11:38:00.007+01:00

For the first time since 1997, we enter a new year certain that we will have a general election. The last time we entered a new year with 100% certainty that we would have a chance of getting a better government, you have to go back to 1979. Destroying Labour at the ballot box is what I call once in a generation opportunity. Here's a few NYE's texts I received.

2010 - our year of deliverance. To victory, comrades.

I think next year will be a good year.. Can't think why.

Here's for a return to a genuine free market. Hayek and Friedman we need you.

It will be a Happy New Year if we get a change of government.

I am thinking of making a few resolutions. These will be mainly based around effective time management - e.g. less online chess.

In terms of predictions, my wife is expecting a baby in May so I hope that comes to pass. If kicking is a good sign, it's doing well.

At the national level, I am expecting the Conservative Party to become the biggest party and Labour to slip to well under 200 seats. I don't think that the timing of the GE is especially important, but as a rule of thumb the later Labour go, the grislier it will be for them. Expect the following discernable electoral trends to be discussed at length after the election.

1. I expect that the polling lead over Labour will exceed 1987, but the Tories will either win a tiny majority winning around 330 seats or if they fall just short they will coalesce with one or some of PC/SNP/Irish unionist parties. This will prompt much analysis and expedite the boundary review which will lead to 10% cut in the number of MPs.

2. Disappearance of Labour in 'the South' outside of London. Labour currently hold close to 50 seats in the Eastern, South-West and South-East sections of the country. See this map. I expect them to keep one of the Bristol seats, Slough and Luton North, but if they can't magic up at least 30 more wins in these areas, they won't be able to keep their majority. They won't. Cue discussions about whether Labour is truly a national party.

3. The Lib Dems will do better than expected. Outside the south-west they will make small gains sometimes on large swings against Labour. Their best results will come in the north-east. They will get just short of 100 seats.

4. Largest anti-Labour swings in the West and East Midlands. Watch for places like Cannock Chase, Warwickshire North and Birmingham Erdington. Up north, the biggest surprise will come in Yorkshire where Ed Balls will lose in Morley & Outwood.

5. The growth of 'the others' will manifest itself in a number of ways. Labour and Conservative combined will fall below 65% of the total vote. Secondly, for the first time ever, a number of English seats will be won with less than a third of the vote (Brighton Pavilion, Birmingham Hall Green, Derby North and Norwich South spring to mind). NB - It would be interesting to have a betting market on the seat with the lowest winning vote share. UKIP will take second place in a number of 'safe' Conservative seats.

Gordon Brown's departure will be an amusing sideshow. Initially, he will indicate his plan to stay on for some time to oversee an 'orderly hand-over', but this position will become untenable and he will have to resign within days of his General Election defeat.

21st Century Campaigning

2009-11-14T11:35:00.004+01:00

The Labour Party have dropped another notch with their Jedward negative campaigning. At the excellent Alice in Chains gig I went to yesterday, I was passed a flyer advertising the following band.

I raised a laugh when I said that it was a Gordon Brown letter of apology. Not sure that a politicians who complains to cartoonists for making him look fat will do tell well on this campaigning territory.

Trust Hope Change

2009-10-31T23:48:00.003+01:00

When even the Foreign Secretary is putting party politics before the country's interests by smearing democratically elected politicians from other EU countries, it's hard not to sink down to his party's level. Despite the temptation, we should remain above the fray.

The 2008 Conservative conference coincided with Birmingham Uni Freshers' Week. That year trust, hope and change were the campaigning themes of the Fresher recruitment drive - all positive concepts - we should keep this at the forefront of our minds when we are promoting the Conservative message.

Cult Support For Labour In Bedford

2009-10-16T16:03:00.005+02:00

Since the constituency was created in 1997 Bedford has had a Labour MP. Back in 1997, Labour gained over 50% of votes cast.

You’d have thought that Labour would be strong contenders in the Bedford mayoral elections. You’d be wrong. John Prescott and Ali Campbell may be campaigning to Go fourth, but in key battleground seats such as Bedford, Labour are coming fifth. In yesterday’s mayoral elections, the Labour candidate captured just 3,482 (less than 10%) of the 34,875 votes cast. Backing for Labour has fallen from 1 in 2 to 1 in 10.

Voting Labour is looking increasingly like a cult activity.

Foreboding

2009-08-26T12:40:00.004+02:00

In the near future there may be protests in the centre of Birmingham and the local football derby will have taken place at St Andrews. In the light of recent events, it's hard to be optimistic about how things may unfold. I shall not be in town for any of these 'upcoming activities'. I hope that the police have jolted out of their apparent complacency and the city is in one piece when I come back.

Trends In Bribery

2009-08-05T19:25:00.002+02:00

I’ve been having fun with Craig Murray of late. I pulled him up for attacking our winning candidate in Norwich North - Chloe Smith – on the grounds that she had worked for Deloitte. He reacted in characteristically over-the-top style to this criticism, with an extra-ordinary post on his blog where he accused auditors of bribing the Tories. Having said all I need to say to Craig (and I think it’s safe to say that nobody who is involved with running our financial system will be consulting him) it made me go away and have a closer look at bribery and bribery law.

And the news is this. This Autumn, from the government which didn’t bring you an investigation into BAe, expect new legislation relating to the giving and receiving of bribes. In addition to reforming legislation related to these criminal activities, a new corporate liability offence of "negligently failing to prevent bribery" will be introduced. As a risk management professional, I am grateful for this extra offence as the enhanced requirements on companies that ensue is good for my trade. Draft bill here.

Bad Penny

2009-07-24T11:24:00.004+02:00

In May 2008, Cllr Matt Bennett won Stockland Green for the Tories for the first time in 22 years on the largest swing in the city. Report here. The Labour incumbent at that time was Penny Holbrook who works for Sion Simon.

Either Sion or one of his staff seems to be caught in the past. If you visit his latest web entry, the author labels the photo above as sion-simon-mp-brookvale-centenary-with-cllr-penny-holbrook.jpg. Let's hope this error is corrected so that Penny can't be accused of impersonating a councillor.

Update Sat 25th - corrected.

Poor Choice Of Words From 'Sorry' Liam Byrne

2009-07-07T00:48:00.005+02:00

In an attempt to pre-empt David Cameron's quango-slaying, Liam Byrne graced us with this ridiuclous utterance.

I am determined that every penny of public money goes to front-line services.

Setting aside the impossibility of this aspiration, here is a man who can't even ensure the legitimacy of all the (extortionate amounts of) money he claims as an MP! Exhibit one and exhibit two.

A propos de rien, here's a good story about Liam Byrne from the guys in the Dixon estate agents below his constituency office in Hodge Hill. Remember when he claimed how remorseful he was when he was caught using a mobile whilst driving. Well the press were gathered at his work the day after he was convicted. As he breezed through the Dixon offices - whilst smirking - he gestured being on the phone and driving. Liam, like me, they think you're a twunt.

Reinstate Lisa

2009-07-05T23:07:00.005+02:00

Lisa Greenwood has lost her job for posting an anonymous blog comment critical of Hazel Blears expenses. Source. A few points.

1. The comment was anonymous so it can't 'bring the department into disrepute'.
2. Most politicians I've heard have told us that MP expenses are not a party political issue, so how can calling the behaviour of one MP into account be considered to be party political?
3. Will people from Ed Balls department who criticised Conservative politicians be brought to book in a similar manner?
4. After her recent behaviour, when will Damian McBride's gf be departing her job?

A civil servant has every right to a private opinion and I think we should all be able to call a politician a disgrace without censure. Add your name in the comments if you think we should get a campaign going to reinstate Lisa.

Labour Party On Tilt

2009-06-22T02:05:00.005+02:00

Tilt is described as follows on wikipedia

Tilt is a poker term for a state of mental confusion or frustration in which a player adopts a less than optimal strategy, usually resulting in the player becoming over-aggressive... Placing an opponent on tilt or dealing with being on tilt oneself is an important aspect of poker. It is a relatively frequent occurrence due to frustration, animosity against other players, or simply bad luck. Experienced players recommend learning to recognize that one is experiencing tilt and avoid allowing it to influence one’s play.

The expenses row seems to have precipitated a tilt-like madness in the Labour Party from the painful process involved in getting the expenses published, to Gordon's retracted youtube, from the eve of an election resignation to blacked-out claims. The exposure of these expenses on any government's watch would have been deeply damaging, but the unhinged reaction of Brown's clowns is making things even more grisly for their beloved party.

Clear evidence of Labour whips arm-twisting MPs to back the anti-reform candidate for Speaker might just be the final straw for the public. I am afraid to say that this story may be a self-fulfilling prophesy. After all, it is a secret vote and theoretically Labour can force through their choice of Speaker. Machiavellian Tories may decide to vote for her on the basis that they may calculate that their party will be the beneficiaries of the public outrage that would follow her appointment.

From the very start of this process over a month ago, I made it clear that my favourite choice for Speaker is Richard Shepherd. None of the objections to his candidacy that I have heard have been anything other than cosmetic. Late backing from Guido and Douglas Carswell is not likely to help his chances. Whilst some Tories may back Beckett to make Labour look bad, I contend that the lack of support for a Tory like Shepherd on the Labour benches is due to the fact that his clarity and integrity would make Labour look bad. If pushed, I am sure Labour MPs would much prefer a pantomime baddie like Widdecombe in the Chair.

Update - Douglas Carswell and some of my favourite bloggers (Guido Fawkes, Graeme Archer, Cranmer and Jonathan Calder) called it right. As Tony Sharp observes the mood of the country does not extend to Westminster. I suppose we have to hope for the best from Bercow.

Congratulations Pete

2009-06-21T09:48:00.005+02:00

I have known Peter Smallbone since I joined 1M at the age of 11. Even at school we were good friends and instinctive Tories. I might be wrong but I vaguely remember us discussing subscribing to British Gas shares at school. Our contact faded when we were at different universities but reignited in our 20s when we took several holidays together including trips to Cuba and Russia. By 2006 Pete was standing at local level and started his political blog (see links on the right). He captured Birmingham Quinton off Labour in May 2008. :-)
Well, on 13 June 2009 Pete got married at his parish church. Here's my favourite picture from the reception at the Chamberlains' former family home - Highbury Hall. Congratulations to Laura and Pete on a great wedding day and an excellent wedding party. Best wishes for the future.

Fantasy Political Evening Guests

2009-06-14T23:49:00.005+02:00

This weekend I was lucky enough to meet Roger Ward, the author of the book "City State And Nation" - Birmingham's Political History 1830 - 1940. His book is one of my favourites because it offers unique insights into Birmingham's political development and in our brief conversation today he managed to recommend a couple of others and passed on a couple of pearls of wisdom. The briefest of meetings with a real authority on a subject is worth its weight in gold.

As a member of several political groups in Birmingham, the topic of political speakers comes up from time to time. Many of my colleagues seem overly keen on getting leading politicians of the day to come (up from London) to talk, but I find them to be less than candid and often in a hurry. Apart from Roger my short list of the people I would like to have present at one of our local political meetings looks like this.

Dermot Reeve - Successful Warwickshire cricketer, innovator and man manager.
Nick Booth - Community media guru - full of ideas, enthusiasm and delivery.
Clare Short - Always has something interesting to say (e.g. this weekend)
Heather Brooke - The successful open government campaigner.
Jon Moulton - As someone who speaks with clarity about the recession, he is a rarity.

Roger gave me a quiz question which I was unable to answer. Name the last Liberal elected to Parliament from Birmingham? Can anyone get that?

This Nightmare Has To End

2009-06-09T07:32:00.001+02:00

On Friday morning I set out on a stag weekend with guys who had travelled in from all over the world. South Africans, Americans and a few Brits, a Kiwi, a Slovak and a Canadian - one chap flew in from Japan. All successful in their part of the private sector. Far from the praise that Labourites suggest that Brown garners from all four corners of the globe, they were unaminously gloomy about both his style and substance and were trying to understand when would be the latest date that the British public could get shot of him.

I knew Labour had had a bad election, but didn't keep in touch with home so my first contact was reading the Mail on Sunday on the flight back to Heathrow. Labour strife appeared to have descended into open warfare. Take Geraldine Smith's article - which deserves a fisk. What kind of mindset do you need to have got yourself into to call fellow female MPs witches? Whilst I think that the following quote has a kernel of truth, can't Ms Smith appreciate that it is so much more powerful and therefore damaging to her party cause when a female Labour MP says it.

The trouble with some of the so-called Blair Babes is that they have come into Parliament without any experience of the cut and thrust of the business world. Frankly, some of them are better equipped for meetings of a WI knitting circle than the rough and tumble of politics.

I am not sure which element of what is going on is worse for Labour's prospects. Is it the open division with each factional blow and counter-blow escalating the level of rancour? Or is it Gordon Brown's stubborn intransigence and startling immaturity? Or is it the 'Blairite' plotters who only appear to have damaged themselves and their party so far whilst cementing Labour's reputation for incompetence? I didn't expect ruthlessness, but they can't even manage to give one of the weakest PM's in history a political knifing.

I would like to see Labour obliterated at the ballot box, but even I don't think I could wish for this nasty, mean-spirited saga to play out in public for much longer. A friend of a friend who has contacts in the Treasury and meets a Minister frequently, reports back that the air of gloom when he last visited was palpable. The Minister who I won't name doesn't seem like the sharpest tool in the box, but does at least come across as affable in public.

Meanwhile, the Independent has the audacity to assemble four Lefties to debate titled 'Is Our Democracy Under Threat?' in Birmingham this Wednesday. Let me assure the panellists who I expect to be scratching around for new and exciting ways to keep the Tories out, that the public's appetite for an immediate general election will be made crystal clear.

52 Card Pickup

2009-06-02T17:47:00.001+02:00

Apparently, Gordon Brown is planning a reshuffle in the wake of the Euros.
This picture was mailed to me of his plans from inside 10 Downing Street.

How To Woo A Lib Dem

2009-05-27T23:19:00.006+02:00

Councillor Martin Mullaney is the latest Cabinet member on Birmingham City Council. After having his arm twisted to throw his hat in the ring, he circulated the following pitch to his fellow Lib Dems and then won the overwhelming backing of the group to overthrow Ray Halsall the incumbent Cabinet member for Leisure, Sport and Culture.

CLICK THE IMAGE TO ENLARGE

I expect no reward for this public service, but I hope this gives other ordinary mortals an insight in how to woo a Lib Dem.

Behind The Curve & Ahead Of The Curve

2009-05-19T14:12:00.006+02:00

It is difficult to gauge the mood when events move so quickly. In spite of following the progression of many a political scandal, I was slow to appreciate the political impact of the Expensegate and as a result I have a somewhat painful bet hanging which depends on Labour's performance at the upcoming Euros.

On the other hand, a thread that I started a week ago on Michael Martin - where John Hemming MP indicated his support for attempts to remove the speaker and which attracted some half-hearted criticism from a local Labour blogger now appears ahead of the curve. Congratulations Douglas Carswell MP.

On a related note, do you think now would be a good time for the Daily Telegraph's whistleblowing source to reveal their identity? Update - Police will not prosecute. 2nd Update - John Wick deserves congratulation, but in the MPs' expenses maelstrom some people are losing perspective. For example, where is the scandal in this case?

Easter In Wales

2009-05-14T02:11:00.010+02:00

At Easter, Wales was the only sunny place in the UK, but fortunately that's where we went. We started at Mellington Hall where my wife and I stayed for a night. Built like a Cluedo boardgame, I imagine that the murder mystery nights they host there are great fun. Its grounds were perfect for a relaxing evening stroll.
Here's a few pictures from the country roads and lakes of mid-Wales.

The perfect reflection at Lake Efyrnwy was a joy.
We ended up at the distinctive Powys Castle near Welshpool which remains inhabited.

Political In-Fighting

2009-05-13T01:51:00.003+02:00

Astonishingly, Birmingham Labour returned more MPs to Parliament in 2005 (nine) than the number of councillors they returned in last year's locals (eight). Labour MPs sit in Birmingham Edgbaston, Selly Oak, Hall Green and Northfield but in the 36 local elections held in these four seats in the local elections held in May 2006, 2007 and 2008, Labour have won a solitary seat. Occasionally people express surprise at how badly Labour are doing on Birmingham City Council. In a recent post (three down) I related Labour's selection difficulties for the Lozells & East Handsworth by-election. This election campaign has now exploded into violence. Not between parties, but within the Labour Party! It's rumoured that the victim is in fact the Labour Party agent, a chap who is unfortunate enough to share a name with a commenter who posted this drivel on the Birmingham Post blog.

...Every one has right to air their views how ever I begg to differ.
Roshan must be held responsiable for an attack on the sikh community. The birmingham post should remove such people from their post who try to create hate within our multicultral, multifaith community. I also take the view that this is not roshan speaking but the Birmingham post for not vetting and allowing this articail to be printed. Again welldone to the organisors. This is what happens when you harvest fruit out of season , you get a Coconut that has a bitter taste.

Now do you understand why Labour is vanishing in Birmingham?

Annoyed With The Telegraph

2009-05-09T23:10:00.002+02:00

Guess why?

Doing Your Bit For The Economy

2009-04-29T16:13:00.001+02:00

On a car bodyshop invoice.

Please help us to beat the credit crunch by settling your account promptly.

Labour Family Trees

2009-04-28T02:37:00.010+02:00

When it comes to selecting candidates, I don't think you'll ever find me holding up the Conservative Party as a paragon of virtue, but compared to the Labour Party we approach perfection. Several recent contests involving all-women-shortlists have resulted in organisational chaos and worse. If you were looking for arguments for selecting on merit alone, the catalogue of chaos that follows makes a strong case.

The most obvious debacle is of course Erith and Thamesmead where the 22 year old daughter of Lord Gould was placed as favourite before the whole show was called off after some ballot box tampering back at Labour HQ. You'd have thought that Labour would have learnt from Crewe & Nantwich that nepotism is unappealing - but then again there are many unlearnt lessons from that campaign.

Speaking of 'it's not what you know' Tony Blair's mother-in-law recently won out in an acrimonious contest in the Calder Valley.

Not wishing to be upstaged, West Midlands Labour have organised an all-women-contest in the wake of the mysterious departure of Cllr Kim Brom from the inner city ward of Lozells & East Handsworth. Contest you say? Well not really. Despite interest from various quarters, only one name was put forward to the party membership - benefit claimant, Hendrina Quinnen, leaving Khalid Mahmood's former squeeze out in the cold.

But this time Elaina Cohen isn't taking things lying down. It appears that when she was canvassing for support she was told she was too white and jewish and has a witness to back her up. All this is before I give you the lowdown on how the 27 year old daughter of the Chairman of the Birmingham Labour Party managed to win selection for Clare Short's seat... That will have to be for another day.

Labour rules may prevent men from having a fair chance, but it's all relative. ;-)

Labour List Lost

2009-04-19T23:36:00.003+02:00

The online project that the Labour Party planned and in which senior figures invested so much political capital is drawing to an end. Red Rag? No, I'm talking about Labour List.

I did predict that this online project would help the Tories, but as you can see by the latest polling data, it has surpassed all expectations. Bravo Derek Draper.

Bull In A China Shop

2009-04-15T14:03:00.006+02:00

The Labour Party are desperately trying to limit the fall-out from Smeargate to Damian McBride, but facts may get in the way. For example, if he's not the person who purchased the Red Rag website, there is likely to be further spillover. The BBC reports,

Meanwhile, the Times newspaper has reported that the Red Rag website was set up by someone giving the name "Ollie Cromwell" and the House of Commons as their address. Easily internet, which registered the site, would not confirm or deny the address given but is looking into whether its terms and conditions were breached. The firm has been unsuccessful in contacting the site's creator on the telephone number given.

We're looking for a Westminster-based Puritan whose phone doesn't work. Hmmm

Spinning Into Oblivion

2009-04-14T18:31:00.005+02:00

Gordon Brown and Damian McBride's published reactions to Smeargate sum up their regime. I've thrown in Tom Watson's resignation letter for good measure.

Damian McBride's Resignation Letter

I am shocked and appalled that, however they were obtained, these e-mails have been put into the public domain by Paul Staines. When Derek Draper originally suggested using a website to compete with the kind of material seen regularly on the Guido Fawkes blog, he asked me in a personal capacity to write up some of the stories doing the rounds in Westminster. Derek and I decided in the end that this website was the wrong thing to do, and that Derek should not take his online efforts down to the level of Guido Fawkes and his Tory backers.

Guido has frequently asserted his independence - which is a key element of his online reputation. Astonishing that a resignation letter for smearing would contain an apparently actionable smear.

I have already apologised for the inappropriate and juvenile content of my e-mails, and the offence they have caused, but I did not want these stories in the public domain - it is because Paul Staines has put them there, and I am sickened that he has done so.

Only because you lost your job over it.

However, we all know that when a backroom adviser becomes the story, their position becomes untenable, so I have willingly offered my resignation. It has been an absolute privilege ...

Game over.

Gordon Brown Apologises For Getting Caught

I enclose a letter sent to Gus O'Donnell to revise rules for political advisers. The political adviser concerned has apologised unreservedly and left his post. He sent these prank emails without the knowledge of anyone in Downing Street. I understand the embarassment caused, and any activity such as this that affects the reputation of our politics is a matter of great regret to me. As you can see, I have taken action to do all I can to avoid this happening again.

Firstly, is that supposed to be a personal apology? Secondly, McBride's e-mails were palpably not a prank - even his resignation letter makes that clear. Misrepresenting them in this way is brazen dishonesty. Rather than an apologising, Brown's letter adds insult to injury.

Tom Watson's Resignation Letter

Dear Tony,

The Labour Party has been my life since I was 15 years old... So it is with the greatest sadness that I have to say that I no longer believe that your remaining in office is in the interest of either the party or the country. How and why this situation has arisen no longer matters.

At least have the guts/decency to explain your resignation. What a coward.

I share the view of the overwhelming majority of the party and the country that the only way the Party and the Government can renew itself in office is urgently to renew its leadership. For the sake of the legacy you have long said is the only one that matters - a renewed Labour party re-elected at the next general election - I urge you to reconsider your determination to remain in office. As you know, I had a conversation with the Chief Whip last night... with the greatest regret, therefore, that I must leave the Government. Yours ever,

Tom Watson MP

The greatest regret! Ha.

Happy Easter

2009-04-13T01:50:00.002+02:00

Back again. Call it intuition but now seems like quite a good time to be recruiting/energising Conservative Party supporters. Funnily enough I have a list of about 200 to go through. Should be fun.

Blogging Break

2009-02-22T19:55:00.003+01:00

The Lenten season approaches and I've decided to take a blogging break as part of that. I'd like to point you to a couple of Birmingham-based conservative websites. Young Tory activist Matthew Tidy has just started blogging. And David Kelly is a mysterious character who seems to be the first on all the local political gossip. I only plan to update the blog if and when my suggestion for a party peerage is published by Conservative Home.

Prescient?

2009-02-20T19:30:00.001+01:00

I saw the following on a blogpost last November, so I repackaged it and sent it to some mates titled "The wisdom of Alistair Darling". Unfortunately, we're actually ahead of schedule...

Jan 2008 The UK economy is one of the strongest in the world

Feb 2008 Growth in the UK next year will be 2.5%

April 2008 The UK will continue to grow throughout next year

May 2008 The UK will escape recession

Nov 2008 The downturn will end in the second half of next year when growth will resume

Jan 2009 The UK recession will not be as bad as in the nineties

March 2009 The UK recession will not be as bad as in the seventies

April 2009 The UK economy is stronger than Irelands

May 2009 The UK economy is stronger than Icelands.....just

June 2009 The depression in the UK will not be as bad as in the thirties

Sept 2009 It will not be as bad as the Irish potato famine of the nineteenth century.

Nov 2009 It won't get as bad as during the Black Death which ravaged throughout the middle ages leaving millions dead

Dec 2009 Christmas is cancelled this year

Jan 2010 Hello...is anyone still listening?

Update - On a related theme, I have to admire the way Fraser Nelson is using his blog.

I Live In My Sister's Box Room

2009-02-10T16:04:00.004+01:00

But last May in my capacity as a local resident and voter, I nominated the local Labour candidate at my 'second home' in Redditch.

Britain's Unsustainable Credit Expansion

2009-01-30T20:29:00.003+01:00

Some people seem to think that bank nationalisation/massive public borrowing/lowering interest rates are the best way to get us out of this mess. I do not concur.

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.

Ludwig von Mises.

That's why I'm looking for another currency. I like the Polish government but worry that these smaller economies will be at the mercy of global capital movements. Any other ideas?

Labour Lords - Laws 4 Lolly

2009-01-25T22:02:00.003+01:00

No matter what organisation you belong to there's always a right and wrong way to do things. If you're not fighting for transparency and against corruption, you encourage it so the degeneracy of the Labour government should come as not surprise. Whether it be quango appointments or payments for peerages, the circumstantial evidence against New Labour has been overwhelming for some time. Therefore it comes as no surprise that 80% of Labour Lords succumbed to approaches requesting they amend laws in return for cash. Source. Indeed they boasted of their previous successes at influencing the law for their 'clients'. Others advertised access to senior government Ministers suggesting that the scope of the investigation into these allegations should be wide-ranging.

Contemptuous Attitude To Our Democracy

2009-01-21T13:38:00.003+01:00

The Labour MP Paul Flynn is an idiot, so you'd think he'd be keen to try his hardest at Parliament. But no, he confirms his contempt for our democracy twice in his latest post.

On taking part in votes in the Commons.

Two minutes into Obama's speech, the division bell rang and we were all dragged from the mesmerising television pictures to vote in the Commons Chamber. The whips decided these things and their timing stank today.

Paul, there's plenty of people out there who want to represent the electorate in the House Of Commons - how about standing down? On voting to hide MP's expenses.

95% of the bad publicity has been thrown at Labour MPs. There is a siege mentality in Westminster that says whatever is published the press will again be reporting it hysterically. Why continue to feed the beast? I do not know which way I will vote - if I vote at all

If any reader wants to put on a small bet with me that Paul will vote against hiding expenses I will take that bet.

Update - In his comments to the post, Paul informs passing readers that 'this site is a forum for intelligent people'. Nice.

Shit List

2009-01-12T22:33:00.010+01:00

Derek Draper - the 'mastermind' behind Labourlist had a forgettable debut on the small screen appearing alongside Tim Montgomerie the founder and editor of Conservative Home. After Channel Four were unable to open their home page during the interview, K G-M delighted in concluding the news with the information that the technical hitch was at Labourlist's end.

Speaking of Conservative Home, our party's grassroots website tracks all the respected opinion polls.

When we come to consider the impact of Derek Draper's Labourlist, we can measure it against the starting point shown above. As someone who has done a bit of political blogging in his time, I find Derek's self-confidence highly amusing. He seems to think that he can go in to bat for his political side without breaking sweat.

If Draper and his team continue to provide such a clear insight into the Labour party's thinking (or lack of it) I expect to see considerable improvement in the Conservative position.

Birmingham's Kinda Quiet These Days

2008-12-30T01:37:00.007+01:00

Survey Results

2008-12-10T09:44:00.005+01:00

The evolution of my blog poll during 2008 has been fascinating. At the start of the year - when all the London teen knifings were in the news - violent crime was right up there. I will give you my quick views on the top 3 in more detail

The Economy

Just two weeks on from a PBR that predicted Q4 economic growth of 0.75%, these government predictions have been shown to be massively and palpably wrong. Similarly bad news is that the new US president is no fan of capitalism and shares Gordon Brown's moronic belief (or is that line of least resistance) that massive additional government borrowing, populist bullying of the productive part of the economy and 'global solutions' are the way out of this mess. In the long run, we will only regain our previous position as a significant economic power by rewarding work and enterprise and massively reining in the size of the state. The actual direction of travel is ominous.

Welfare

Just as getting a job gets significantly more difficult becomes Labour has belatedly recognised that welfare dependency is a bad thing and started to reverse the something for nothing culture that they have defended for the last 11 years. Will the government be offering Norman Tebbit an apology?

Europe

In terms of my poll, this has become less prominent as the year has developed. Is that an air of resignation? The newly re-elected 'leadership' of the Conservative Party in Brussels offers nothing that enthuses me. To say that work on a European reform agenda is embryonic is far too polite. I can't see my efforts to assist the West Midlands delegation being too strenuous in the lead up to May 2009.

Alternative Realities

2008-12-01T16:22:00.000+01:00

In the wake of the Mumbai atrocities the Indian Home Office Minister, Shivraj Patil, has emphasised the operational independence of India’s police force and security services.

Meanwhile, here in the UK, following the events surrounding the arrest of an opposition politician, Home Office Minister Jacqui Smith has taken full responsibility for the actions of the police and submitted her resignation.

PBR In A Nutshell

2008-11-24T19:15:00.006+01:00

Yesterday, Tories were nervously expecting Labour to steal a tax-cutting march. What Darling finally announced is complex, irrelevant and unaffordable. The main economic effect of the flagship VAT policy will be felt by the big spenders who spend more on goods that attract the full rate. But of course, the massive movements in the updated borrowing forecasts (previously shown by Dizzy to be systematically optimistic) are the most shocking element of the PBR as shown below.

Clearly the 45% tax rate and 0.5% NI rises aren't going to plug the gap. You might reasonably ask where the other future tax rises were in Darling's announcement. They are missing because the government is banking on spending cuts and efficiency savings the likes of which they have never achieved in the past... The message is clear - we're in the shit and our grandchildren will be paying for it.

Increasing The Size Of The State

2008-11-18T09:29:00.002+01:00

Most governments would like to spend more and tax less especially when approaching an election. New Labour has been on an election footing since Gordon Brown was crowned leader and (surprise surprise) the size of the fiscal deficit has gone up and up since then. The G20 meeting was of course nothing more than political cover for turning this significant fiscal gap into a chasm.

As well as being politically cynical and utterly irresponsible by passing the tax burden onto future generations, increasing the size of the state is economically damaging. Much research negatively correlates the proportion of government spending in the economy with economic growth.

In Mervyn King, we have a discredited Bank Of England head, who is probably more focused on fighting to keep his organisation independent than tackling the real problems we face. These bank forecasts look like complete fantasy to me. The recession is much worse than policymakers seem to realise. Here in the real world, bad news is accelerating. Gordon Brown seems quite happy. He is a vampire feeding on our misery.

PragueLabour

2008-11-16T12:28:00.002+01:00

I remember certain online combatants from the Labour Party threatening to set up Prague Labour identity. It seems that fifth columnist Cynthia Roberts got there before them. Here. Understandably, she denies being an STB spy..

Why Are Labour Attacking Osborne? - To Please The Great Leader

2008-11-13T14:06:00.007+01:00

Of course, it's true that Labour high command want Osborne out. Draper, Campbell, Mandelson and every small name Labour whip would all be there claiming credit were he to be moved. And on Labour's left, class war idiots like Bob Piper love nothing more than a mean-spirited campaign against a 'Tory toff', but I find it surprising that acute observers, Tim Montgomerie and Iain Dale have reached the conclusion that ;

1. Labour’s high command’s main motivation is to damage Project Cameron,
2. That motivation is relevant when it comes to picking our top team

I’d criticise point two for being too cynical, but point one for being insufficiently cynical. In my view, the anti-Osborne mob mentality at the top of New Labour comes from trying to please the leader. I doubt many will dispute that there is no Conservative politician who Brown despises more than George Osborne and it is that personal animus that is the primary motivation propelling Labour’s spin doctors and politicians on a collision course with George. Independent thought has been hollowed out of the Labour Party. It's cynical careerism all the way.

I must add that Tim and Iain's defence of George is doing him no favours. David Belchamber, who is my favourite commenter on Conservative Home, concludes that it appears that George retains his post solely because he is a close friend of David Cameron. Outside the Westminster Village, that is a widely held and deeply damaging perception that Tim and Iain are reinforcing. My view is that the Shadow Treasury Team urgently needs freshening up and clarity of purpose. Short-term face-saving is not a justification for delay.

Little Positive Effect!!!

2008-11-06T09:51:00.003+01:00

London’s leading shares remained in the red during the afternoon session as Obama's US Presidential election victory had little positive effect on the markets...

As at 9am on Thursday 6th, I reckon the FTSE has fallen about 6% since Obama's coronation...

Since when did little positive effect mean deeply negative?

Obama Milestone

2008-11-05T09:45:00.004+01:00

The occasion of the first black US president ranks up there with the first man on the moon as momentous event that will go down in history. It represents more than just a wonderful symbol, but unfortunately I can't help but wish that was all it was.

In Obama, we have an avowed economic protectionist and a foreign policy prevaricator. There will be sops to the left, but having experienced Blair 1997 or Clinton 1992 it feels like we've been here before. I expect Obama's first term to be strong on right-wing rhetoric with a determination to hold the centre ground. Obama's campaign for 2012 starts here.

This will no doubt fall on deaf ears, but is there any chance we can get back to sorting out the UK now?

The Mirage Of Economic Success Under Labour

2008-10-20T10:37:00.005+02:00

By 2002/3 New Labour were breaking new records for economic cronyism and incompetence – it was a period in which they pushed supercasinos, 24 hour pub opening and broke free from Tory spending plans. I recall routinely bumping into public sector managers trying to find ways to spend unnecessary budget increases - the period that followed left Labour seeking new ways to disguise falls in public sector productivity. Meanwhile, economic researchers were already wondering aloud whether the productive part of the economy was operating on borrowed time.

UK Personal Lending 2003 – Published December 2002 by Datamonitor

With the UK’s troubled manufacturing sector continuing to underperform, a full blown recession is only being avoided by exceptionally strong consumer credit and soaring house prices, which, in turn, are only possible due to low interest rates and low inflation. However, if consumer confidence fails there is a distinct possibility that the UK economy could slip into recession once again.

UK Personal Lending 2004 – Published December 2003 by Datamonitor

The consumer credit market has defied expectations and produced another record year in 2003, helped on by low base rates, low levels of unemployment and a strong housing market… leaving many to wonder whether the current levels of personal debt are sustainable.

ISN’T IT NOW CLEAR WHAT LABOUR DID?

Labour decided to “avoid recession” by stoking unsustainable levels of personal debt. In the long term, you can only create economic success by improved productivity. This is underpinned by building a cohesive society where work and enterprise is rewarded. Anything else is a mirage. Labour’s policies amount to the same as ever – pure protectionism – the main difference this time is how long they sustained the heresy. Eventually, Labour always wrecks the economy.

UK Personal Lending Reports

2008-10-16T09:38:00.002+02:00

Datamonitor produce an annual report on personal lending in the UK. I was having a tidy up and came across their reports for 2003 and 2004. Authoritative tomes, they provide bone-crushing evidence that the "UK credit crunch" was predicted and predictable from way back.

British Banking System - Get Well Soon

2008-10-15T18:30:00.003+02:00

RIP or get well soon? Let me give you a personal perspective.

At the age of 26 in 2001, I arrived in the Czech Republic for a two year secondment with Deloitte. On my first day there, an American boss pulled me into his office to tell me the lay of the land. Amongst other things, he informed me that, in his opinion, the Czech government’s woeful/criminal (?) management of the banking sector had cost every taxpayer the equivalent of a year’s salary.

During the 1990s the Czech government had ‘liberalised’ the banking sector without actually privatising it, therein blocking necessary modernisation of the bloated banks and resulting in (ahem) leniency for politically favoured customers. Naturally, this situation eventually led to a pretty nasty banking/currency crisis in 97/8 followed by several “Austerity” budgets.

Fortunately, the Czech Republic did take firm action to restore confidence in the banking sector – ringfencing distressed assets and selling off the large state-owned banks to reputable foreign banks. On a personal level, it was a great opportunity for me as I worked closely with some of these banks attempting to change the organisational culture and develop the skill set to compete in the free market. At the micro level, here are some of the measures the newly private banks took to improve their efficiency.

- Zero-based budgets (i.e. budgets that are based on what needs to be done rather than what was spent last year)
- Staff training on credit management to improve credit decisions, credit valuation and Workout effectiveness.
- Removed time-servers/blockers
- Encouraged entrepreneurial thinking and customer focus
- Changed back office functions from cost centres to profit centres.
- Improved financial reporting
- Enhanced management information (e.g. KPI suites etc)

Look at the Czech Republic’s economic growth data series

1997 0.3%
1998 -2.3%
1999 0.5%
2000 3.6%
2001 2.5%
2002 1.9%
2003 3.6%
2004 4.5%
2005 6.4%
2006 6.4%
2007 6.5%

One of the main lessons I learnt from my first work experience in Czech was that a properly functioning capital market/banking sector is a pre-requisite for a strong economy – almost more important than anything else. This is why when our government takes major stakes in the four major UK banks (apart from the worrying implications/unintended consequences for the rest of the UK banking sector), immediately I want to hear about the states’ exit/re-privatisation strategy. I haven’t heard a thing. People may like to read and learn from this report. If there is an appetite to get the UK back on its feet it may become very relevant in the nearish future.

Broker Updates

2008-10-10T10:57:00.000+02:00

PS - The carnage has only just begun.

Proudest Moments

2008-10-07T14:12:00.004+02:00

Being a proud Conservative and a proud Brummie I was keen to see that the Conservative conference in Birmingham would reveal both groups in a good light. Thankfully, it has. Daniel Hannan and Matthew Parris showered the city with compliments and the local meeja gave the Tories more coverage than I could have imagined... but what's my proudest recent moment. Finding out that to counter mischievous Tory bloggers Labour Home screen out Prague residents. I am not joking.

Cameron - Pragmatic or Ideological?

2008-10-07T11:23:00.002+02:00

A friend of mine is embarking on an interesting piece of research on whether Dave is pragmatic or ideological since becoming leader. Obviously, actions speak louder than words, but I mentioned to him that he has 400,000 words to plough through. I have my own views, but I'd be interested in what readers think.

People Of Faith Not Welcome?

2008-10-06T09:11:00.003+02:00

As you can see from their fringe listings, the Conservative Party play host to "prayer breakfasts" during conference - a long tradition, I believe. Go to Labour's fringe listings and marvel at their "no prayer breakfast". It should be an uncontroversial idea that people of all faiths should feel comfortable in all the mainstream parties.

But with the departure of Des Browne and Ruth Kelly from the Labour front-bench, it appears that Labour's leading anti-Catholic MEP Mary Honeyball has got her wish. I'm fairly open-minded on these things (grins), but how can a person of faith possibly support the Labour Party?

Tory Conference Update

2008-10-02T10:06:00.003+02:00

I promised some pictures during conference - unfortunately a bag containing my camera was stolen on the Saturday night. It was a successful conference on a personal level - Mark Wadsworth should know what I mean, but everything is a bit of a jumble, so I might blog once I have organised my thoughts.

Me Elsewhere

2008-09-26T10:27:00.004+02:00

As local officer for Birmingham University Conservative Future, I will be attending their Fresher's Fair stall at their Guild today at some point between 10 and 4. I've recently written an article for their website - although I didn't choose the graphic.

In anticipation of party conference in Birmingham, I’ve prepared an introduction for delegates. I thought this deserved a wider airing and Tim Montgomerie has kindly published it as a platform piece on Conservative Home.

I have decided to do some picture blogging during conference as I can’t be bothered to exercise the grey matter too much, but, along with the Thunderdragon, Westbromblogger and Andrew Allison I have agreed to do a special piece for The Brummie Republic blog – which is of course a local website. ;-)

Ruth Kelly

2008-09-24T08:56:00.005+02:00

I've always been an admirer of Ruth Kelly. I felt particularly sympathetic towards her when she felt the anger of backbench Labour MPs over her decision on where to school one of her sons. She was an academic high-flyer by any measure - which makes her Einstein in Labour circles - so the patronising attitude towards her from many of her 'fellow' Lefties also grates. Kevin Maguire was on GMTV this morning saying she jumped before she was pushed and that who knows who the Home Secretary is. I simply don't accept that Ministerial profile is a major consideration when it comes to evaluate how someone is doing the job - after all John Prescott was a well known Transport Secretary! It's a pity she has left government. In further disturbing news for teh Catholic Church, Rowan Williams has visited Lourdes.

Warming Up For Conference

2008-09-21T14:19:00.006+02:00

This is me. Feel free to say hi if you see me at conference.

Two years ago I attended many events on education and social justice as that was of great interest at that time.

In 2008, my online poll shows that my readers have similar concerns to me and the events I plan to attend concern themselves with the economy, welfare reform and Europe. I'll also be attending "politics and the media" type events and leave any Beeboids in no doubt about my feelings for them.

It seems that about 20% of the Tory fringe events are devoted to climate change noise so that makes the process of elimination easier.

Away from the conference programmes, along with other Tory males, I'll be attempting to catch a glimpse of the Tory bunnies.

Brown Stakes Out The ICC

2008-09-08T08:53:00.002+02:00

Conservative Conference this year will be at the International Convention Centre in Birmingham. Today, Gordon Brown's will be holding his Cabinet there and is armed with ~~reannouncements of old spending pledges~~ goodies.

Brown Decides To Mend The Roof

2008-09-03T09:16:00.003+02:00

Labour’s house fixes won’t work, but will cost - a one-year holiday from the transaction tax only invites buyers to purchase homes that will lose value. Incentives for builders will add to the supply of unsold properties, further depressing prices. The overall scheme's main effect: to worsen the government’s fiscal position. Who remembers Labour's attacks on the Tories 'unfunded spending promises'? If you google it now all you find is laughing and pointing at Labour. ;-)

Why Not Abolish The Home Office?

2008-09-02T10:53:00.002+02:00

That would seem a reasonable conclusion from the findings of REFORM latest report which labels the UK's centralised justice system as expensive and ineffective. Violent crime has increased from 8 per cent of all recorded crime in 1997 to 20 per cent in 2007/08 and British people are more worried about crime and violence with 43 percent reporting it as one of their greatest concerns compared to 21 percent in Germany and 27 percent in the US.

A Slight Return

2008-09-02T09:39:00.002+02:00

Arriving Back From Planet Zog

Spending a week in the nether regions of darkest Slovakia put me in a media black hole, so getting up to date with news events is a bit like arriving back from planet Zog. My worthwhile decision to take a summer break from blogging heightens the sense of catch up. Despite being in recess the Labour government naturally continues to lurch from crisis to crisis to crisis – as I’ve been saying since Blair was PM, it seems that Labour’s strategic line of argument is ‘Yes, we’re crap, but so are all politicians’ - presumably banking on tagging the Tories with the (insert epithet) label at election time as usual. With their characteristic lack of self-awareness, Liberal Conspiracists are accusing right-wingers of being negative campaigners – apparently we are scum of the Earth who should be copied!

KP - Born Winner

Unfortunately, Labour’s pessimistic views seem to have infected other areas of British public life. I have never been a great fan of Michael Vaughan especially as a one day player, so it’s been instructive to see the difference that Kevin Pietersen’s captaincy has already made. Simply put, Kevin Pietersen is a born winner and the little extra he has got out of the team in the 1st ODI created all sorts of pressures on the South African opposition. If a top-class sportsman had succumbed in a similar style to South Africa in the second match, some would be calling it a nervous breakdown.

Uniquely Poorly Placed

Re economic trends, local and globally, it’s all getting more than a bit embarrassing for Labour and those whose credibility as economic commentators depends on Labour success (hat tip Anatole Kaletsky). Thanks to his profligate spending and catastrophic disaster management, George W Bush has done little for the wider conservative cause during his reign, but it still caused me some delight to see the BBC World News reporter choking on news of robust economic growth in the US economy. Back in the UK, the debate the Chancellor started a few months ago about whether the country is ‘uniquely well placed’ as we head into an economic downturn is becoming increasingly one-sided – Darling himself seems to have swapped teams. The risible Leftie argument that states are powerless in the face of increased globalism is turned on its head when major sources of employment and tax revenues haemorrhage to business friendly neighbouring countries.

Annihilating The Labour Party

The silver lining for British conservatives is that the increasingly sharp and violent rebukes globalisation delivers to ‘hands-on’ government/economic protectionism may be the catalyst for the annihilation of the Labour Party (New or Old) whose adherents subscribe to an archaic philosophy wholly unsuited to the 21st century. I still hear an attachment to the idea that large majorities lead to poor government, but I find that I am generally succeeding in running that out of fellow Conservatives – with the possible exception of Frank Field every unseated Labour MP is axiomatically progress.

Blinded By The Light

I’m particularly happy with John McCain’s choice of running mate and the predictably disgusting Left-wing reaction. It seems that Barack does not have the capacity to rein in Democrat attack dogs – in terms of counter-productive viciousness, the Left is at its worst when faced with an opponent who doesn’t conform to their stereotypes (here in the UK a certain attractive nurse raised on a Liverpool council estate can take a bow). Sarah Palin’s stratospheric approval levels show that social and economic Conservatives can be wildly popular without compromising their core beliefs.

In Defence Of Corruption

Sticking with international affairs, but at the other end of the evolutionary scale political spectrum, the crypto-Communist idiot who is also the Slovakian head of state is endorsing state corruption and in doing so is following a sad and predictable path. Which brings me to Georgia – a state that has in recent years shown great progress in terms of democracy and economic freedom - the sort of state we should be supporting. The neglected credo of ‘peace through strength’ has never been more relevant. Having vetoed Georgia’s membership of NATO and exposed Western weakness the sight of Sarkozy shuttling to and from Moscow sticks in the throat.

2008 Party Conference

Wherever I look, parables are being played out that support my world view and reveal the desperation and bankruptcy of the so-called alternatives to freedom and capitalism. Did I mention that I shall be at Conservative Party conference this year? – after all I live just around the corner. In fact, the turret in Praguetory Towers is a perfect sniper position (joke). At my last conference in Bournemouth I attended back-to-back Fringe events, but I intend to be a bit more of a social butterfly this time, so I may be lighter on political analysis but I should have some good photos and stories. In the meantime, I’ll be limbering up with the occasional blogpost.

Blog's Out For Summer

2008-07-15T10:10:00.006+02:00

Having noted that none of my upcoming political projects need me to spend time blogging, I have decided to take a six week Summer holiday - I've just left something for any Labour members passing. Enjoy my sidebar links. They're excellent.

Going Back To The Roots

2008-07-13T09:48:00.008+02:00

Years away from the next local or General Elections there is a danger of relaxing. No chance of that. Every one of the last 6 days that I have been in Birmingham I have been at well-attended Conservative Party events. Amongst these was a local candidate's thank you party. Of the 60 or so attendees, just a handful were under the age of 50. Personally, I enjoy listening to the old 'uns, as they always have something interesting to say. One chap described his anger when attending a private party that was mainly full of Socialists where Clare Short called Margaret Thatcher 'treacherous'. Another bloke who was an RAF veteran described how written complaints had been made about the new Labour Lord Mayor for failing to observe protocol at a recent Veteran's Day parade.

But the focus of my party work going forward is a mixture of recruitment and ensuring new young members get actively involved. The graphic below taken from a very recent edition of the Economist shows that as well as these activities are a case of making hay whilst the sun shines.

Birmingham University Conservative Future have invited me to take a local officer role so I plan on spending some of this Summer building their links with the local party and helping plan next academic year especially the opening recruitment drive. Another key objective supported by our regional team in Coleshill is to involve younger members. For those who have embarked on a career this might mean an introduction to the City Branch Committee. In my area, there's also a lot of new members in the 17 to 25 range who are full of enthusiasm. I'm currently organising an ice-breaker event for these guys so that they can get their membership of the party off to a flying start.

If you or will be living, working or studying in Birmingham and want to get involved with the most successful Conservative Party organisation in any of the core cities you can drop me a note on praguetory@googlemail.com and I will help.

Stephen Newton - Idiot Labour PR Man Sniffing Around The Blog

2008-07-10T18:11:00.002+02:00

In comments to a blogpost, Stephen Newton asked me to republish some old posts. I thought he already had them all, based on the entry below.

First Published 16 July 2007

Look at an extract from my site visits today. The unintentionally anonymous PR man and labour supporter Stephen Newton MCIPR has been trying to find out a bit more about me as evidenced by this screenshot.

16 - He begins with a little search with a query about my work life
17 - Looks like he might have found what he was looking for
18 - Something for the archive, sir?

Come on Stephen, out with it. What's on your Dominic Fisher - Praguetory file? What glowing testimony to my talents can I expect?

Haltemprice & Howden

2008-07-05T19:53:00.002+02:00

Got soaked in Haltemprice & Howden today. As well as the man himself, I met fellow bloggers Andrew Allison, Sam Tarran and Donal Blaney for the first time which was a pleasure.

Not much sign of any other party making a breakthrough, but turnout will be a problem if the weather stays like this. I'd say that if DD gets 20,000 this Thursday he will have done magnificently.

What About Khalid Mahmood?

2008-07-04T14:03:00.004+02:00

You need front to be a Labour politician and throw stones at Tory politicians for sleaze. Recess Monkey has little else. He's been trawling through the recently introduced register of Family Members Employed and Remunerated through the Staffing Allowance and taken a pop at Laurence Robertson for his full disclosure. Source.

Misleadingly titled 'mistress on the state' it got me thinking about a certain Labour MP. Khalid Mahmood (MP for Birmingham Perry Barr) is indeed a most surprising omission from the register. As the latest (as at 20 May 2008) official register shows he employs Elaina Cohen in Parliament. Below are extracts from a 2005 interview with them both...

...In an exclusive interview with the Sunday Mercury the couple spoke for the first time about their 'tempestuous' three-year affair. Jewish Elaina Cohen revealed how she still adored England's first Muslim MP despite being constantly briefed against him by his back-stabbing New Labour colleagues...

"They tried to use my emotions to make me hit out at Khalid. They thought I knew things about Khalid that could embarrass him so they wanted to manipulate me into hurting him publicly."

The tangled love life of the Birmingham Perry Barr MP has infuriated some Labour figures. And he has incensed staunch Muslims after abandoning two Muslim wives, both of whom had a child by him.

But Mrs Cohen was keen to show her support for the politician she first met in Islamabad, Pakistan, in 2001. "We have a lot of issues to work through but we still adore each other," she insisted. "This is a journey, not the end." The mother-of-two is still renting the plush Birmingham city centre flat they shared for two years. Mr Mahmood is currently 'staying with friends'.

The unlikely couple are vague about the exact reasons for their split. But Mrs Cohen, who was in public relations and journalism before she became her lover's £20,000-a-year parliamentary assistant, insists no-one else was involved. "I've been on dates with a few people since we split, but nothing more," she said.

Sitting across the table from her in a city centre bar, Mr Mahmood was slightly more coy. "I've met women friends for dinner but you couldn't say they were dates," he said...

"It's been a very hard time for me. I went through a difficult divorce, which only came through last week. The hardest thing was leaving my children and making sure they've been OK throughout all of this. "When Khalid and I split, certain people within the Labour Party would constantly put the knife in.

"It's a wonder we've stayed close but we're only here together today because we talk all the time and we know who's been saying what." Mrs Cohen switched from Tory to Labour after getting together with Mr Mahmood."I would have converted to Islam if we'd got married," she added.

"When you love someone you want to commit to them completely." Mrs Cohen says she is now 'entrenched' in New Labour, thanks to her ex-partner."I ran his last election campaign and I'm a member of the local Labour Party," she said proudly.

She left her husband and kids to be with Khalid (God know why - the man's a schmuck) so why isn't this relationship on the register? And could the cynics who say that this relationship is only on ice/hidden to appease the Muslim electorate in his Perry Barr be right?

Are You A Left-Winger Or A Right-Winger?

2008-06-28T09:21:00.005+02:00

Look at the facts objectively to understand the reality of the situation. Consider whether a policy response is appropriate. Critically appraise proposed government legislation. Turn that into an engaging and provocative article. That's what Tim Worstall did re gender pay equality.

If you've ever questioned whether you're naturally right-wing or left-wing, I'd suggest which camp you come down on in the debate in the lively comments thread would be a decent indicator. If this is your reaction, then I am afraid it's terminal. You're destined to a happy existence working towards the North Korean model. Personally, I've always been in favour of as little government intervention in the labour market as possible (think UAE).

Update

And if you're a left-winger, you'll probably get a bit twitchy about this sensible article.

Hash Browns

2008-06-27T01:09:00.004+02:00

'Don't say you weren't warned' I said shortly before Brown was crowned a year ago today. I need say little more. I was right. A year on and I am in a minority. Unlike 85% of people Gordon has met my expectations.

Blair and Brown will not go down as good PMs, but I do think their task has been herculean. The real problem is the Labour Party and especially the PLP. Since about 2003, neither Blair nor Brown has really been able to lead their party and have been led by the nose by a bunch of no-mark MPs. I've got a new line that seems to strike a chord with people when they moan about this government. We (the country not me personally) voted in a bunch of teachers, trade unionists and lawyers so it's obvious that we should have a bossy, socialist government that thinks that they can solve any and every problem with legislation. Do you like it? I find this argument works well with uncommitted voters. Try it.

Don't Miss Tory Conference

2008-06-25T20:00:00.003+02:00

Discounted tickets available for a limited time. Not only will this event be in my hometown, but it will be in my home constituency. See you there.

Emergency Talks In Prague

2008-06-16T12:09:00.004+02:00

Nicolas Sarkozy is paying Prague an 'emergency' visit to try to get the Lisbon Treaty back on the rails. He'll have his work cut out. Mind you, he's also holding a drinks reception at the French Embassy this afternoon so don't kid yourself that he's that bothered about the Lisbon Treaty hitting the wall.

I'd love to spend more time on the DD campaign in Haltemprice & Howden, but for now, I'll just share a few thoughts on a contest that is shaping up as not just a battle for liberty, but one against the Westminster village who condemn themselves every time they ask what David Davis stands to gain by his decision. My suggestions for the campaign are as follows.

1. Emphasis that David Davis is a moderate libertarian and that basic civil rights are the platform - it's not about extreme libertarianism or special interest groups. So it's not about drug-taking, prisoner votes or undermining professionals in positions of authority.

2. The campaign must be anti-Labour, but not pro-Conservative. That means no rosettes, no branded literature, no unprincipled concern for the impact on the polls. If I visit from the West Midlands I would like to travel up with non-Conservatives supporters such as Colin Ross or Dr Dave.

3. Someone should set up an online roll-call of those who have supported (and opposed) David's campaign. Let the record show who stood on both sides of the debate in the 2008 Battle of Haltemprice & Howden?

Over and out. Offline again for a bit.